Dominic Cummings takes a page from Peter Turchin and observes that the West is entering the next phase in what has been observed to be a regime change cycle averaging about 50 years.
If you look back at European history since the French Revolution, there is a cycle of slow rot, elite blindness, sudden crisis, fast collapse, regime change that flares up roughly every 50 years… The vast majority of Insiders cannot see this process while they are playing their part in it and even those who see some only ever see a little. The process only acquires any coherence in retrospect when it becomes history, people define a period including the run-up then the crisis and the regime change and try to abstract critical features of it and argue for centuries about the ‘causes’. Though even after it becomes ‘history’ it remains unsolved: we still can’t describe a good model for the cause of war in summer 1914, we still argue about whether the French Revolution was net good/bad, most find it impossible to learn much from the Cuban crisis even though we can listen to secret recordings of key meetings.
Looking back since the French Revolution and end of the Holy Roman Empire we see this cycle repeat.
- A cycle of major war and revolution ended in 1815 with the Peace of Vienna.
- In Germany the 1815 settlement nearly crumbled 1848-50, barely held, then was transformed in 1866-71 (~50 years) then again, after another ~50 years, in 1918 (Weimar), again in 1933 (Nazis) and 1945 (West/East Germany), then ~50 years of relative stability then again in 1989/91 (a re-united Germany).
- France has had more regime changes depending how exactly you count them.
- Russia had four: the Tsars, Communists, Yeltsin, now Putin (although nominally the Yeltsin constitution largely remains I think it’s more accurate to see the current regime as fundamentally different in a similar way as Prussia/Germany was fundamentally different after 1866-67 even though the old Prussian constitution remained).
- The Habsburgs were chased out of Vienna in 1848 and had to fight their way back in, had to rejig the Empire after Italian and German unification, collapsed in 1918, that regime was replaced by the Nazis then replaced again in 1945.
- And so on…
Sometimes regime change goes faster and wider as crises multiply (e.g 1848-71, 1917-19), sometimes it is more stable (e.g 1815-48, 1871-1914, 1945-89). But 50 years seems to be about the maximum then at least a few big regimes change. And even Britain and America, avoiding revolution and defeat, have seen a similar process of the regime being reinvented every 50 years or so (Washington/Hamilton, Lincoln, FDR, ??).
I think what’s happening now across the western world rhymes with this cycle.
There are certainly a number of disaffected elites, which Turchin believes to be a necessary requirement of successful change. Donald Trump and Elon Musk are just two examples of elite figures who have been rejected by the system and thereby been inspired to transform it more to their liking. This does not, to be sure, make them “the good guys”; they are still elites, and, being products of the system, are naturally inclined to try to preserve and transform it rather than burn it down entirely and build anew.
However, it is encouraging that history is clearly not on the side of some of its most wicked players. The global imperialists are failing, as we know they inevitably will, because both God and human nature are against them.